Skepsis
Skepsis is a continuous-outcome prediction market. Instead of yes/no, you price the range a number lands in. Binary markets price direction and pay nothing when the number lands off-strike; Skepsis prices magnitude, so the payoff scales with how close you are. It runs on Arbitrum Sepolia, resolves on Chainlink, and is curated. LMSR over a bucket tree prices every range on one continuous curve (range, time, and 1-of-N options markets). One ERC-4626 vault seeds every market, so a market is tradable the moment it's created, and recycles capital on resolution. LPs earn fees across all markets. Unified liquidity: one curve with shared depth, not fragmented per-threshold binary books. Solvency is guaranteed on every trade: LMSR keeps pool balance ≥ max payout, and the alpha parameter bounds worst-case LP loss. Alpha decay tunes spreads over a market's life to blunt manipulation and converge to efficient pricing. (confirm direction vs. the deployed contract) Traders express a precise view (CPI in 2.8–3.2%, not CPI > 3%); treasuries and LSTs hedge precise exposures without basis risk; parametric insurance becomes possible.
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説明
Skepsis — price the number, not the direction.
Skepsis is a continuous-outcome prediction market. Binary markets ask one thing: will the number go up, yes or no. So a Bitcoin close at $98.5k and a close at $120k pay exactly the same. The market is blind to how much.
Skepsis prices the range instead. Pick the band a number lands in, and the payoff scales with how tight the band is: a tighter range is harder to hit, so it pays more. At a uniform prior on a ten-bucket market, one bucket pays about ten times its cost. The payoff is for being right about how much, not just whether.
The gap between the outcome priced and the outcome that paid has a name: basis risk. It is what a trader loses when CPI lands at 2.9% but the only market was "above 3%", and what a treasury loses hedging an exposure a yes-or-no contract can't match. In time, it is how catastrophe risk gets priced: as a curve, not a coin flip.
Under the hood: one shared LMSR liquidity curve prices every range, a single ERC-4626 vault seeds every market and recycles capital on resolution, positions are ERC-1155 tokens, and resolution is Chainlink-fed and time-gated. Settlement is on Arbitrum.
Live on Arbitrum Sepolia: curated BTC markets, end-to-end trade, resolve, and claim, an ERC-4626 LP vault, and real Chainlink resolution.